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May 22, 2023

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Don over N. Atlantic... Central Atlantic tropical wave continues west

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide. STAY INFORMED: Get

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.

Low pressure over the Central Atlantic was upgraded to subtropical storm “Don” early last Friday then back down to a depression but purely tropical(!) by early Mon. then a tropical storm Mon. evening & briefly to a hurricane late Sat. - the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. Don has made the turn north & will veer more to the northeast as the westerlies pick up the small tropical cyclone over the N. Atlantic. Don will move into a hostile environment - cooler water, increasing shear - through the early part of the upcoming week resulting in a petty rapid weakening trend. Don will remain over the open N. Atlantic with no impacts to Jacksonville or any of the U.S.

In the Central Atlantic... there are indications of a couple of active tropical waves moving west off of Africa during the next 1-2 weeks. Something to keep an eye on though overall conditions (wind shear especially + a large area of dry air over the Central/E. Atlantic) look rather marginal at this point. A lead wave - ‘95-L’ will approach the Caribbean by the early to middle of next week moving over the Caribbean by Tue./Wed. & will likely eventually struggle against strong shear. But an upgrade to a depression or tropical storm will be possible before moving into the E. Caribbean. The GFS model is more north, the European model closer to the S. American coast. Midway between the two is probably the best call. So some gusty squalls will be possible for the Windward Islands Tue./Wed. The image below shows the warm sea surface temps. & relatively low wind shear. But once over/near the Caribbean, shear will increase markedly. There’s also a fair amount of dry mid & upper level air. Taking all things into consideration, 95-L should struggle in the longer term.

Meanwhile... A distant trailing wave soon to come off the coast of Africa seems to have a higher chance for more significant development - at a higher (more north) latitude - mainly the week after next.

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

July tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for July (already at 3 named storms):

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2023 names..... “Emily” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors will expand rather dramatically by Aug./Sept./Oct.:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

East/Central Pacific:

West Pacific:

Global tropical activity:

“Doksuri” will strengthen & is forecast to be in the vicinity of Taiwan Tue./Wed. then China by late week:

Cox Media Group